The hope among Democrats and their left-wing activists was that lawfare would turn the tide.
But the results so far can’t be encouraging to President Biden and his supporters.
Now, this one lean blue state just delivered more bad news for Biden.
This was never supposed to happen, but it’s bound to be giving Democrats heartburn.
New polling out of Minnesota and Virginia, two states with a history of supporting Democrats, shows a surprisingly close contest this year.
A new poll of Minnesota voters shows Biden at 45% support among likely voters in Minnesota, with Trump at 41%.
The poll conducted June 3-5 for the Star Tribune, MPR News, and KARE 11, took place after Trump’s guilty verdict in the so-called “hush money” trial in Manhattan.
That Trump is within striking distance in a state that hasn’t voted for a Republican since 1972 is remarkable.
More worrying for Biden is that in Virginia, the latest information shows a pure toss-up race.
Et Tu, VA?
This poll, conducted by Fox News, also took place after the Manhattan verdict and shows Biden and Trump deadlocked at 48% in a head-to-head matchup.
The last time a Republican presidential candidate carried the Old Dominion was in 2004 when George W. Bush defeated Democrat John Kerry.
Political pundits say that seven swing states that decided the 2020 election (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, which were narrowly won by Biden, and North Carolina, which Trump carried by a razor-thin margin) are now up for grabs in the 2024 rematch.
Of those seven, Trump currently leads in all of them in recent polling.
Youngkin: “Virginia looks like it’s in play and that’s pretty exciting.”
Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) likes what he is currently seeing in the state.
He said last week in a Fox News interview in New Orleans, “Let’s just begin by remembering where we were in 2020 when Joe Biden won Virginia by 10 points, and the fact that we’re having this discussion is a huge turn of events. We’re here in June and there’s still a lot of water to go under the bridge, but Virginia looks like it’s in play and that’s pretty exciting.”
Trump campaign advisers Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita, along with pollster Tony Fabrizio contended in an internal survey shared with Fox News, “Minnesota & Virginia are clearly in play. In both states, Donald Trump finds himself in positions to flip key electoral votes in his favor.”
Biden campaign battleground states director Dan Kanninen countered, “We feel strongly the Biden-Harris coalition in both Minnesota and Virginia, which has been strong in the midterms and off-year elections, will continue to be strong for us in the fall of 2024.”
He added, “We don’t see polls that are six or seven months out from a general election, head-to-head numbers certainly, as any more predictive than a weather report is six or seven months out.”
It’s true that much can change over the next several months, but it is interesting that it is the states Biden won in 2020 that are now in danger of flipping toward the GOP.
We haven’t seen polling from states carried by Trump in the past two elections that are now, suddenly, Biden Curious.
As evidence of the latest trends, the respected Real Clear Politics poll aggregating website has moved Virginia from “Leans Democrat” to “Toss up.”
This just in: Virginia and its 13 electoral votes has moved to a Toss Up. https://t.co/ZuzasZJRHf pic.twitter.com/vze2juBNEg
— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) June 7, 2024
There will certainly be many more ups and downs between now and Election Day, but Trump is polling better now than he ever did in 2020 or 2016 and that must be encouraging to his campaign.
Stay tuned to Blue State Blues for any updates to this ongoing story.
