Small shifts in voter preference can make a huge difference in close elections.
Joe Biden would not be President today if 40,000 votes in three states went the other way in November of 2020.
Now Republican registrations are surging in one blue state leaving Democrats stunned.
Republicans are making huge gains in Pennsylvania and are registering former Democrats at four times the rate that Democrats are registering former Republican voters in the swing state of Pennsylvania.
Pennsylvania will be home to a critical U.S. Senate race this November, which could prove decisive in determining which party controls the chamber next year.
The Republican gains in the Keystone State mirror similar shifts in voter attitudes across other states in the Rust Belt, where Joe Biden and Democrats have seen their approval ratings decline precipitously over the last year.
Democrats still outnumber registered Republicans in Pennsylvania by a margin of 4 million to 3.4 million through March 28, but the long-held advantage that Democrats have previously enjoyed continues to narrow and is on pace to be the smallest in a general election since 2005.
According to the Pennsylvania Department of State, the conversion from Democrats to Republicans is at the highest rate in a decade, even higher than in 2016 when Republicans won the White House, U.S. House and Senate.
Jeff Sheridan is a Democrat Party advisor in Philadelphia and says the party is hiring field staff earlier than in years past and is adding staff from colleges around the city.
But even in deep blue Philadelphia the Republicans are gaining ground as 1,315 city residents have filed forms to change their party registration, a rate four times that of Republicans making the opposite switch.
Calvin Tucker, deputy Chair for the Pennsylvania Republican Party, feels that the gains are a strong showing, saying, “It is a citywide outreach. We will do canvassing, knocking on doors, standing on corners, and talking to citizens and neighbors about who we are and what we are trying to achieve.”
According to Terry Madonna, longtime political analyst in Pennsylvania, a large part of the problem for Democrats is their leftward drift in cultural issues, saying “It’s not just inflation. I think it’s a combination of things.”
Madonna noted that Republican Glenn Youngkin was able to win the deep blue Virginia Governor’s race last year after he promised to ban the teaching of Critical Race Theory in schools, and the political analyst believes that a similar message will resonate in Pennsylvania.
Who could have possibly guessed that indoctrinating kids with radical anti-American racial mumbo jumbo would make parents rethink their long held political affiliations?
Republicans need to net only five seats to win control of the lower House of Congress and Pennsylvania alone offers Republicans three prime opportunities to flip Democrat-held seats.
Winning back Congress for Republicans is going to be a district-by-district battle, but for Republicans the Keystone State may well prove to be fertile ground.
Stay tuned to Blue State Blues for any updates to this ongoing story.