There’s no better sign that politicians are in trouble than when they post anemic numbers in their own strongholds.
Once they lose support among those who strongly supported them in the past, their prospects in future elections start to look bleak.
Now, Biden is blowing it even in his New York stronghold according to a new poll.
The last time the Empire State voted red in a presidential election, “red” had an altogether different meaning.
During the Cold War, Ronald Reagan was forcing the Communist Reds to spend more than they could afford on defense, eventually leading to the collapse of the U.S.S.R.
The year was 1984, and that’s how long ago it was that a Republican carried New York’s electoral votes in a presidential election.
But now, according to a new poll, Joe Biden is showing signs that he’s approaching territory where he could possibly allow the GOP to break that nearly 40-year streak.
Biden’s numbers are in freefall.
Last month, a poll from Siena College Research Institute showed Biden’s favorability rating at 50% in New York State, with 45% disapproval.
That’s a bad place for a Democrat president to be, but the newest iteration of the poll shows that Joe Biden has gone from bad to worse.
The brand-new October poll shows that Biden’s now underwater with an unfavorable number of 52% to only 45% favorable in New York.
Only Joe Biden could make New York a swing state
Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg broke the bad news for Team Blue in a press release, saying, “While 70% of Democrats view Biden favorably, and 70% of Democrats approve of the job he’s doing, 52% of Democrats say they want a different presidential nominee in 2024. And in the general, Biden only leads Trump 46-37%, a far cry from the 61-38% margin Biden won by in 2020. Biden’s lead slips to just seven points if RFK and West – who, combined, win the support of nearly one in five voters – are on the ballot.”
That Biden is only up seven percentage points over Trump would have been inconceivable just a year ago, before the former president was hit with several indictments, largely seen as political hit jobs by his ardent supporters.
The poll was conducted from Oct. 15-19 and surveyed 1,225 New York State registered voters. The overall margin of error is +/- 3.4 percentage points.
One bad poll would be easy to dismiss, but the signs are all there to indicate that the Democrats could be in for a world of trouble next year.
Within the last week, polls from Bloomberg and Emerson College have shown Trump leading Joe Biden in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
If these numbers were to hold, Donald Trump would best the current president in a political rematch election by a large margin.
Of course, the election is still a year away, and that’s several lifetimes in the world of politics.
But if Biden does eventually lose, his current weakness in New York might turn out to be a canary in the coal mine.
Stay tuned to Blue State Blues for any updates to this ongoing story.